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How we collect the data
FSD Tracker is independent and not affiliated with Tesla. Our credibility rests entirely on linked public sources.
Collect
Our bots continuously track regulator portals, Tesla reports and specialist press in 6 languages.
Verify
Every signal is tied to a dated primary source. Secondary sources only confirm.
Verdict
Status (available / soon / expected / no data) and confidence are computed from source consistency and recency.
Publish
The verdict is published with sources and a timestamp. Every edit is logged publicly.
How “probability by date” is computed
The path to availability is split into milestones. Cleared milestones and typical transition times give an “available by month” distribution. Numbers are preliminary and open.
Milestone ladder
- 1Legal framework
- 2Application filed
- 3Road testing
- 4Approval
- 5OTA rollout
- 6Available
Base rates (median · spread, months)
| Milestone | Median | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Legal framework | 6 | 4 |
| Application filed | 4 | 3 |
| Road testing | 5 | 3 |
| Approval | 6 | 4 |
| OTA rollout | 2 | 1 |
P(available by month m) is a logistic CDF: centre = sum of remaining medians (an “in progress” milestone counts as half), scale = from the summed spreads. A cleared “Available” milestone → curve = 100%.